805
FXUS63 KICT 151727
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
- HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK SIGNAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED STORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
THIS WEAK MID-LVL WAA WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
WE MOVE INTO THE DAY ON TUE BEFORE WANING. SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT
RISES/INCREASING H10-H5 THICKNESS WILL LEAD TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE ALONG THE
OK STATE LINE WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING LEADING TO A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. THE NOCTURNAL LLJ IS PROGGED TO RAMP UP TUE
NIGHT BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SOME LOW POPS WERE
MAINTAINED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS AS NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BISECT THE AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO 100-105 IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS, WHILE LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON IN THE FLINT HILLS
AND SOUTHEAST KS WHERE LOW/MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL LINGER. AS THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z, STORMS MAY UNZIP FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODERATE TO EXTREME BUOYANCY
IS PROGGED IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LVL
FLOW IS PROGGED. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRYLINE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SURGING
COLD FRONT. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY. THE
TRAILING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/MORE ISOLATED STORMS LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME BUILDS OVER
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
FRI-MON...MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRI-SAT AS THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND DRIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES ON SAT. WE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SHARPENING DRYLINE ON SAT
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCREASING CAPPING CONCERNS.
THE NOCTURNAL LLJ COULD ALLOW ANYTHING ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
TO GROW UPSCALE SAT NIGHT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF STORMS AND SOME POPS WERE MAINTAINED. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMERGES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE MID/UPPER RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
STORMS SUN-MON BUT CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TURNS THEM TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW CHANCES (15-20%) FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONS AT RSL/SLN WITH
THIS ISSUANCE, THOUGH FUTURE CYCLES MAY INTRODUCE AS ADDITIONAL
DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK
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