922
FXUS63 KICT 012337
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
BY LATE EVENING
- THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY(JULY 4TH)
WITH THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES EXPECTED THAT HOLIDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S SETUP WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
ALOFT, HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN MODEST DCAPE. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME WEAKER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH-IN THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH HEAT PERSISTING. HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FOR MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED.
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD SEE HEAT INDICES AROUND
105 DEGREES BY SATURDAY(JULY 4TH) AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENING OUT BECOMING
MORE ZONAL FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED TO INITIATE WITH-IN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT,
HOWEVER MODEL PLACEMENT FOR THIS UPSLOPE MOISTURE AXIS VARIES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF MODELS. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO
INITIATE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK AT NIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EXTENDING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LOITERING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES FOR THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD AT THIS
TIME ARE LOOKING LOW DUE TO WEAKER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
KS.
JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT, STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO/SW KS AND ARE TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL START TO APPROACH KRSL-KGBD AFTER 03Z WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IF THEY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. SO FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH A
PROB30 AT KRSL-KGBD. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
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