391
FXUS63 KICT 021736
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY (JULY 4TH)
WITH THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ISOLATED CHANCES PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
CURRENTLY, RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
TIERS OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHING SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED, BUT A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PESKY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED AND CONVECTION LOOKS
UNLIKELY TO PROGRESS TOO FAR EASTWARD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
REMNANT BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS, WE
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE, HIGHS IN THE
90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MEAN HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY, INDICATING HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SUNFLOWER STATE. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR MANY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
THEN, A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR LATER THIS
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS AXIS LATE ON SATURDAY
WHERE 3000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
INTO A PROGRESSIVE MCS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WOULD MITIGATE
HAIL CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EXIST GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR WEST AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT COMING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE
ASSOCIATED INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER, HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. BECAUSE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG
AROUND, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF CENTRAL KANSAS TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. THEREFORE
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT
24HRS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CDJ
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