369
FXUS63 KICT 021951
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
251 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR/ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
- SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES TO START NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER WAVE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE HAS ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE REMNANTS OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL KS (RUSSELL/BARTON COUNTIES)
TONIGHT, CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS REACHING
OUR AREA WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND CAPPING ISSUES OVERHEAD.
INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL KS, WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. FURTHER EAST,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST A BIT LOWER ON FRIDAY OWING TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING SURFACE INSOLATION. HOWEVER, CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS, AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY SIT AROUND/ABOVE 105 DEGREES INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES MAY
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS CONFIDENCE
IN THIS INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL THINKING STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX APPEARS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, GUIDANCE MOVES THIS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LLJ VEERS
OUT. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE STRONG WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH LIMITED HAIL CONCERNS CONSIDERING WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THE HEARTLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS NEAR 70.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF CENTRAL KANSAS TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. THEREFORE
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT
24HRS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ
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