776
FXUS63 KICT 022324
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR/ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
- SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES TO START NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER WAVE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE HAS ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE REMNANTS OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL KS (RUSSELL/BARTON COUNTIES)
TONIGHT, CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS REACHING
OUR AREA WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND CAPPING ISSUES OVERHEAD.
INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL KS, WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. FURTHER EAST,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST A BIT LOWER ON FRIDAY OWING TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING SURFACE INSOLATION. HOWEVER, CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS, AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY SIT AROUND/ABOVE 105 DEGREES INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES MAY
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS CONFIDENCE
IN THIS INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL THINKING STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX APPEARS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, GUIDANCE MOVES THIS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LLJ VEERS
OUT. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE STRONG WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH LIMITED HAIL CONCERNS CONSIDERING WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THE HEARTLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS NEAR 70.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED, AND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC
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