651
FXUS63 KICT 030351
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1051 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR/ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
- SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES TO START NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER WAVE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE HAS ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE REMNANTS OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL KS (RUSSELL/BARTON COUNTIES)
TONIGHT, CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS REACHING
OUR AREA WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND CAPPING ISSUES OVERHEAD.
INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL KS, WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. FURTHER EAST,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST A BIT LOWER ON FRIDAY OWING TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING SURFACE INSOLATION. HOWEVER, CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS, AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY SIT AROUND/ABOVE 105 DEGREES INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES MAY
CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS CONFIDENCE
IN THIS INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL THINKING STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX APPEARS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, GUIDANCE MOVES THIS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LLJ VEERS
OUT. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE STRONG WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH LIMITED HAIL CONCERNS CONSIDERING WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THE HEARTLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS NEAR 70.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STORM POTENTIAL OVER
WEST-CENTRAL KS.
JUST LIKE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHWEST KS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY APPROACHED THE WESTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE ARE KEEPING STORMS
OUT OF ALL TAF SITES. THIS SAME SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT
FOR FRI NIGHT, WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER WESTERN KS AND
SLOWLY TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP WITH
THE THINKING THEY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRI AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-35MPH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
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