956
FXUS63 KICT 031744
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING.
- A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- LOW PROBABILITY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY SEASONABLE TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS HOT SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
PRECIPITATION:
OVERALL, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE
KANSAS REGION WHEN LARGE SCALE FORCING IS USUALLY RATHER WEAK AND
INSTABILITY IS HIGH. EACH DAY'S THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE PRIOR DAY'S THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FORECAST MODELS
TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH PATTERNS LIKE THIS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WE ARE EXPECTING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO GET AS FAR
SOUTH AS CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN KS AND NE IN
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST, POSSIBLY REACHING CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. BY THE
TIME ACTIVITY REACHES CENTRAL KS, IT'LL LIKELY BE ON THE DOWNTREND,
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LOCALIZED 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS GIVEN
HEFTY DOWNDRAFT CAPE.
MEANWHILE, SEVERAL CAMS DEVELOP AN EXPANSIVE MCS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CORFIDI VECTORS PROPAGATE THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD
BE LOCALIZED 50-60 MPH WINDS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
THE EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC FRONT SOUTH, LIKELY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN KS SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS PROG SOME IMPRESSIVE LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING,
ALONG WITH STRONG BUOYANCY. CONSEQUENTLY, SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY BUSY SEVERE WEATHER-WISE, WITH ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE AND STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF
SATURDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT WEEK...A SLOW-MOVING WEAK UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY. RATHER WEAK
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. BY MID TO LATE
WEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN, WITH
VARIOUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING MID-AMERICA. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-NIGHT-EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES:
LOCALIZED HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 102-104 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS, BUT THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
A HEAT ADVISORY. SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, AS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REACH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED, SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE,
ALTHOUGH LIKELY STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. INCREASING
THICKNESS SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING TREND BY MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK, BUT A MAJOR HEAT WAVE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO AFFECT
PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR STORMS TO POSSIBLY
REACH KRSL SITE EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEREFORE WE HAVE A
PROB30. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR ALL OTHER SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
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