829
FXUS63 KICT 032015
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATER THIS EVENING TO
CENTRAL KS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.
- ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.
- SPOTTY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME OF THESE MAY REACH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING, THOUGH THIS TRACK MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS
DEVELOP. AS SUCH, KEPT ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS CONSIDERING DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
OVERNIGHT, TWO AREAS OF FOCUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FIRST, CAMS
INDICATE STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST, SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED ACTIVITY REACHING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. SECOND, STRENGTHENING WARM-AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE LLJ WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT THAT WILL TRACK TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR
THESE TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY,
THOUGH PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER. WHILE THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE, COULD STILL SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS AMONG THE CAMS GIVES HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SECOND FEATURE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS IS MORE CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF STORMS.
TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY WILL INFLUENCE STORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PLACEMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-70 AND US-54/400. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS
POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN A MEANDERING MID/UPPER WAVE
OVERHEAD, THOUGH AS THE PRIOR DISCUSSION NOTED, LIMITED FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PRECLUDE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONGER FORCING FOR
STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNED AS ADDITIONAL DETAILS COME
INTO FOCUS.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HOT
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO THE MID 90S
AREAWIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO AFFECT
PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR STORMS TO POSSIBLY
REACH KRSL SITE EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEREFORE WE HAVE A
PROB30. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR ALL OTHER SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ
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