205
FXUS63 KICT 041755
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH SURROUNDING WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A FEW
BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
- LOW CONFIDENCE HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY.
- SPOTTY LOW PROBABILITY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
EARLY THIS MORNING--MIDDAY...A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL KS HAS SPREAD AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, STRONG 850-
600MB WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER NORTHWEST KS AND
NORTHEAST CO, AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS. GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS, THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TREKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THINKING CENTRAL KS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135/HIGHWAY 81 HAS
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
ON HOW LONG THIS ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE, WITH MOST CAM SOLUTIONS
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING TREND AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, A LOCALIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF DIME-QUARTER SIZE
HAIL, AND PERHAPS 50-60 MPH WINDS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING--TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ABOUT 3-4 PM. IF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO EVENTUALLY
GROWS UPSCALE AND DEVELOPS A DECENT COLD POOL, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON (SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK) ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN CONTRAST, IF CURRENT ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTHWEST DOES NOT DEVELOP AN EXPANSIVE COLD POOL, AFTERNOON
OUTFLOW POSITION AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WOULD LIKELY
BE FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO ROUGHLY I-70 OR HIGHWAY 56.
DESPITE THIS LOCATION UNCERTAINTY, A STRONG AND FAT BUOYANCY PROFILE
COUPLED WITH DECENT SHEAR FOR JULY STANDARDS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF FLASH
FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
GIVEN HEFTY LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY, AND ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS BACKED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD
LINGER THROUGH OR JUST PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE AND STABILIZATION IN WAKE
OF SATURDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS.
NEXT WEEK...A SLOW-MOVING WEAK UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIT-OR-
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY. RATHER
WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. BY MID TO
LATE WEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN, WITH
VARIOUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING MID-AMERICA. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-NIGHT-EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES:
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SURROUNDING TODAY'S TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES,
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD.
FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE THE INHERITED SOUTHEAST KS HEAT ADVISORY,
ALTHOUGH IT COULD BUST WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 105.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
IN WAKE OF TODAY'S FRONTAL ZONE, ALTHOUGH LIKELY STILL ONLY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST
WARMING TREND BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT A MAJOR HEAT WAVE APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CHALLENGE IS ONGOING AND EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL RENO TO MORRIS COUNTIES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH SOME
OF THE SOUTHERN ATTEMPTS BECOMING MORE AGITATED BASED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS IS CONTRARY TO FURTHER NORTH WHEN THE
CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED. IT WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR
INFLUENCE TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY ACTIVITY. CENTRAL KANSAS
COULD BE DONE FOR THE DAY, BUT THE PROB30S WERE KEPT AND
SHIFTED LATER IN THE EVENT THAT DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES
SOME OF THOSE AREAS. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KRSL. THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY IS QUESTIONABLE WITH ONGOING STORMS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AMENDMENTS DEPENDING ON THEIR EVOLUTION. ABOVE
MENTIONED BOUNDARY IS PLAYING GAMES WITH THE WIND COMPONENT,
THERE COULD BE A CHANGE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING 15KTS AND GUSTS TO 25KTS AS THE BOUNDARY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST. A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS, AND CHANGES
WILL BE NEEDED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...VJP
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