892
FXUS63 KICT 042355
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- SPOTTY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND PUSHED SEVERAL EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONE OF THESE EXTENDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, WHILE A SECONDARY BOUNDARY SPANS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FROM ROUGHLY KINGMAN COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH CHASE
COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THIS LATTER BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON, AND MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED IN THEIR DEPICTION OF
STORM INITIATION LATER TODAY. WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED,
CURRENTLY THINKING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL
RESIDE IN AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE, THOUGH SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS
KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND 30-40+
KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR INITIAL DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY WITH DEVELOPMENT THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH FROM
BACKED SURFACE WINDS, WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE TO SEE PERHAPS A
FEW BRIEF TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL WITH EARLY ACTIVITY,
THOUGH THIS WINDOW MAY BE BRIEF AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE QUICKLY.
AFTER THIS CHANGE IN STORM MODE, THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL SHIFT
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PROMOTE
FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. STILL EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT
TO DIMINISH GENERALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR
EVEN EARLIER IF STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING EARLIER THAN THOUGHT
WITH THE LAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT,
AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN A MEANDERING MID/UPPER WAVE
OVERHEAD, THOUGH LIMITED FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. GLOBAL MODELS BRING A SERIES OF MID/UPPER
WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH MAY
PROVIDE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO THE LOW 90S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MAY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES, BUT RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK MAY KEEP THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS EVENING.
STORMS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF WICHITA A FEW HOURS AGO AND ARE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO OK ALONG A COLD FRONT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KCNU, WHICH MAY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT A STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE WE
MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page