118
FXUS63 KICT 052332
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, THEN
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
WEEK'S END.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE A
WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WEAK SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S STORM SYSTEM. WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY,
THOUGH WITH POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A FAIR CAP IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA, NOT EXPECTING THIS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STORMS. DUE TO THIS AND BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER EAST, DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN THE SILENT STORM CHANCES FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
MODEL CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 90S BY WEDNESDAY, AND WE MAY EVEN
SEE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 BY THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS. HOWEVER, SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS AS RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIVE A
SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IN TURN MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE DETAILS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC
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