852
FXUS63 KICT 061821
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
121 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE,
AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN ON-
AND-OFF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
COULD BE SEVERE.
- SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHT
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE OZARK PLATEAU. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AMID SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER FEATURE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY AND SHALLOW FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
CONTINUED RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
INCREASE. AS SUCH, A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY.
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY LARGELY PRESENT A STRONG
WIND THREAT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN AND WHERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH RECENT RUNS.
STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
STORM CHANCES WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO PERHAPS SATURDAY AS
THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMUP BEGINS TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING NEAR CNU THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE ON A DIRECT IMPACT TO THE AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...WI
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