095
FXUS63 KICT 071128
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCE FOR ON-AND-OFF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW BOUTS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
- MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
THIS AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING, AMIDST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW, SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, BUILDING UPPER RIDGING WILL
SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE HEAD INTO MID-LATE WEEK, THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS A FEW SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL ZONE TO
OOZE SOUTH INTO MID-AMERICA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER GENERALLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEREAFTER WILL BE
TIED TO THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S STORMS,
WHICH WILL PLAY A DIRECT ROLE IN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PLACEMENT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING
THIS PERIOD, WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR COMBINED WITH SEASONABLE BUOYANCY
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE
FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES, IT WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. OF NOTE
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A WEAKNESS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE (I.E. RIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS). IF THIS WEAKNESS VERIFIES, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
SPOTTY HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES:
TODAY--SATURDAY...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS, WHEN/WHERE A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH 105. HOWEVER, IF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SURGE A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH, THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY END UP BEING COOLER THAN FORECAST, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHERN KS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT AN EVER-SO-SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND COMMENCES.
SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES, IT WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. OF NOTE THOUGH...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF
HAS INDICATED A WEAKNESS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
(I.E. RIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS). IF THIS WEAKNESS
VERIFIES, TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST
(CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
CAVEAT MAY BE THIS MORNING BEFORE 14-15Z AT CNU WHERE
INTERMITTENT AND PATCHY 3-5 MILE VISIBILITIES IN BR ARE
POSSIBLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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