195
FXUS63 KICT 071946
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
246 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES RETURN TO MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A MID/UPPER LOW
SWIRLING NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE HIGHS LARGELY IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A CHANGE IN THE RECENT DRY PATTERN ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS GROWING INTO A CLUSTER FURTHER NORTH AND
TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BETTER SUPPORT FOR STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD RESIDE
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, THOUGH PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH HEALTHY DCAPE IN PLACE,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.
STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY KICKS OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. PER THE PRIOR DISCUSSION, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEST SHEAR
PAIRED WITH DECENT BUOYANCY MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND WHETHER SKIES CLEAR OUT IN TIME FOR
PEAK HEATING. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ON
THURSDAY AND THEN NEAR 90 BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS LIMITS
INSOLATION INTO THE AFTERNOON, IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
CURRENT FORECAST VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THINGS STAND, HOWEVER,
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND/ABOVE 100 DEGREES ARE FORECAST IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A BIT
BY TOMORROW MORNING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...SGS
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