477
FXUS63 KICT 222356
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
656 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT SOME OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 48HRS, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPARK OFF STORMS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEADING/FEEDING THE COMPLEX OF STORMS.
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. MEANWHILE, CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH-IN DEEP TROPICAL PLUME OVER UTAH
MOVING NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BEING PICKED UP BY
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT AND STEERED EASTWARD ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN UPTICK FOR
COVERAGE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN LIMITED
WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION, SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE HEAT DOME TO
EXPAND OVER KANSAS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS RANGE WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES NEEDED, AND THE LONGER DURATION OF EXPECTED HEAT COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A EXTREME HEAT WARNING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. PRECIP WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN
12-14Z. FOR THURSDAY, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...AMD
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