365
FXUS63 KICT 230355
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1055 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT SOME OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 48HRS, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPARK OFF STORMS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEADING/FEEDING THE COMPLEX OF STORMS.
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. MEANWHILE, CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH-IN DEEP TROPICAL PLUME OVER UTAH
MOVING NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BEING PICKED UP BY
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT AND STEERED EASTWARD ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN UPTICK FOR
COVERAGE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN LIMITED
WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION, SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE HEAT DOME TO
EXPAND OVER KANSAS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS RANGE WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES NEEDED, AND THE LONGER DURATION OF EXPECTED HEAT COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A EXTREME HEAT WARNING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
LOOK FOR INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
SLN AND CNU HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (40-50% CHANCE) OF
SEEING RAIN AND STORMS. REDUCED VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN FALL AND
LOWERED CIGS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY. THEN, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN
20-25 KNOTS BEGINNING BETWEEN 14-16Z, LASTING BEYOND 00Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...AMD
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