863
FXUS63 KICT 232340
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING FOR AREAS EAST OF I-135 LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
AND DIMINISH AS THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO WANE. EFFICIENT
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES WITH CONSIDERABLE
WARM CLOUD DEPTH APPROXIMATIONS. MORNING PRECIPITATION AND SOME
CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND VALUES WERE
TRENDED LOWER. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY
ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAY SHIFT SSW
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2.25
INCHES BRINGING EFFICIENT RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INFLUENCE
FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A MOIST AND
UNCAPPED AIRMASS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON
STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SIMILAR
TO TODAY, MORNING PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING CLOUD DEBRIS MAY
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN KS.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH INTO KANSAS BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALTHOUGH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY CLIMB OVER 100 THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
BREEZY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING. REDUCED VIS AND LOW CIGS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. RAIN/STORMS WILL SHIFT
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 14-16Z,
FINALLY CLEARING OUT OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 20Z. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...AMD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page