208
FXUS63 KICT 240828
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING.
- GRADUAL WARM-UP CONTINUES TODAY WITH AN EVEN WARMER WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AROUND 100-105 DEGREES ON SUNDAY
& MONDAY AREA WIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CHALLENGES: LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS WHICH HAS MAINLY SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS HAS DIMINISHED PRETTY
STEADILY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY FOR LOCATIONS LUCKY ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER A SHOWER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH SUNRISE AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MID DAY IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY LIGHTNING WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS ALBEIT IF MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY STALLS THIS COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. THE RESPECTIVE
LONGEVITY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY WHICH IS WHY
TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM. NEXT THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND WHAT RESPECTIVE IMPACT WILL THAT HAVE
ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS HEAT INDICES. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH AROUND 105 SPECIFICALLY IN HARPER
COUNTY, IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) WERE KEPT IN FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT PRIOR TO 0Z/7PM WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED. THERE MAY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO
REMOVE THESE CHANCES EVEN QUICKER IF THIS TREND PERSISTS. THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST/WESTERN CONUS PUSHES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF THE HEAT. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE STREAK WILL END WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL
(LOWER 90S) TODAY FOR ALL BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS IS JUST
A WARM UP FOR WHAT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BRING WITH VALUES
AROUND 100-105 DEGREES AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDICES
OF 105 TO 112 ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY TO TUESDAY. WET BULB GLOBE
TEMPERATURES (WBGT) ARE IN THE HIGHEST CATEGORY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
IN MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL. HEATRISK INDICATES THE MAJOR CATEGORY
WHICH WOULD AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS
HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES; GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, THE
PROBABILISTIC VALUES FOR REACHING EXTREME ARE PRIMARILY BELOW 50%.
SINCE THE HEAT REALLY STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE DECISION WAS TO
ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ISSUE THE HEADLINE(S). AS A SIDE CLIMATE
NOTE, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST NEAR
RECORD WARM LOW VALUES.
THERE ARE SUBTLE SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND AGAIN MID WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN KANSAS, BUT THE CURRENT
NBM FORECAST IS AROUND OR BELOW 20% FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY REDUCING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AND
SHIFTING IT WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS
COULD SET UP A TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR THE LATE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IF SO, THIS COULD TAME
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS THUS FAR AT THE TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM SITES BETWEEN
09-12Z, WITH LINGERING IMPACTS AT CNU THROUGH THE MORNING. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. BREEZY
WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 14-16Z, DECREASING AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...AMD
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