617
FXUS63 KICT 250823
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 113 POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- PERIODIC LOW STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOW A LARGE AND STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. 500
MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 600 DAM IS ONE OF A NUMBER OF FACTORS SHOWING
HOW SUPPORTIVE THIS CURRENT PATTERN IS FOR HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT OF RECENT RAINFALL, AMPLE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EASILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. AS A RESULT OF THIS DEWPOINT AND AIR
TEMPERATURE COMBO, HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE OVER
105 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED, HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST 110. DESPITE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE UNCAPPED WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEARING CONVECTIVE TEMPS,
PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS A
RESULT, POPS WILL BE AROUND 10% FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF,
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-54.
THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A STRONG UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING HOT SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 110 DESPITE HIGHS
EACH AFTERNOON RISING ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HOTTEST DAY APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN, BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105
SINCE AUGUST OF 2023. IN ADDITION TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES,
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS WITH
MANY LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY
LIMITING THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR LOW STORM CHANCES TO RETURN AS SOON AS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF PERIODIC LOW STORM CHANCES EACH
EVENING AND NIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE RIDGE
SHIFTING WESTWARD, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN JUST A TAD
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE POTENTIAL STORMS AS THAT WILL LIKELY
BE DETERMINED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT WILL MORE APPARENT AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME FRAME, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BRIEFLY AFTER 12Z. THEN,
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THAT WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...AMD
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