951
FXUS63 KICT 252045
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 113 ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN OUR AREA, DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE
UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST KS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 HAS RESULTED IN HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 105
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARMEST HEAT INDICES RESIDE ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL, SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS WHERE VALUES ARE
GREATER THAN 110. AS SUCH, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN
EXPANDED NORTH AND REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. AS
WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR OUR AREA IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THE SAME
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER HIGH REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALY BETWEEN 4-8 C AND THE GFS BETWEEN 7-12 C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100-105 WITH HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FOR SUNDAY,
THE WARMEST HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. AS SUCH, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST KS FROM NOON TO 8 PM ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 105 ARE LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST KS. EVEN THOUGH HOTTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS, LOWER
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 60S. THIS WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 105 ACROSS THE AREA, BUT LIKELY LESS THAN
110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN KS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN CENTRAL
KS TO NEAR 100 IN SOUTHERN KS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST HEAT
INDICES IN SOUTHERN KS WITH VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT. THESE CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH-
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING ACROSS THE REGION, DUE TO THE VERY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE MUCH
MUCH HIGHER THAT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL REMAIN THUNDERSTORM-
FREE, SO WILL KEEP TAFS DRY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A LONE ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A SLUG
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOSHES BACK NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN KS (SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNING). ONCE AGAIN, CHANCES
AND COVERAGE ARE WAY TOO LOW TO CONSIDER INSERTING MENTION INTO
THE TAFS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-
053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ052-053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ071-
072-095-096-099-100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR
KSZ071-072-095-096-099-100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ071-
072-095-096-099-100.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK
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