501
FXUS63 KICT 270816
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
110 AND 115 THIS AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. THEN, HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES TO RETURN AS SOON AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..TODAY THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AM
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG AND LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S (AS OF
3AM) THANKS TO A PERSIST SOUTHERLY BREEZE KEEPING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECENTLY MIXED OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, HIGHS ON SUNDAY
OUTPERFORMED THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR DUE TO A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER ERODING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS. WITH THE
DAY STARTING OUT AS WARM AS IT IS ALONG WITH EXPECTATION OF
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
FOR TODAY WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FROM THE NBM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 110 ARE NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY. THIS COULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MODEST
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SAG
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THIS ONGOING HEATWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF MODEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD TRIGGER NUMEROUS STORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO, NORTHWEST KANSAS, AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE POINTS
TO THIS CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF I-70 BY LATE TONIGHT).
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
WILL MANAGE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
EITHER VERY LATE TONIGHT OR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, GIVEN
PERSISTENT VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, ANY ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE, AND THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, A
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA WITH
WEAK, BUT SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT, WAA EXPECTED ALONG THIS FEATURE.
AS A RESULT, ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FESTER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 100S ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH JUST A TOUCH MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, IT
APPEARS LIKELY HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 105 TO 110 ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-54 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, EYES WILL TURN OUT WEST AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOOSELY
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MARCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUS, ANY CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL STRUGGLE
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
..WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSUMING CONVECTION PANS OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MUCH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY MID WEEK. THUS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. FORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, SO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100 AND 105, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY RESIDE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MID RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A PARADE OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, A
FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENTLY CHANCES
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, AND
AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. REGARDLESS OF STORM CHANCES AT
THE END OF THE WEEK, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM HOT CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE
BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM
CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE QUIET FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ
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