105
FXUS63 KICT 272322
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES UP
TO 115 WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 105 ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS DOWN FROM A SURFACE
LOW IN WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. IN OUR
AREA, DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER
70S IN SOUTHEAST KS. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 BETWEEN
105 TO 110. HEAT INDICES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 105 AND ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 110 DEGREES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WARMEST VALUES ARE
EXPECTED IN CENTRAL KS WITH INDICES UP TO 115 DEGREES POSSIBLE. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS LIKELY ALONG I-70. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO, WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL KS LIKELY AROUND/AFTER 4 AM. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
THESE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPE VALUES
EXCEED 1400 J/KG ESPECIALLY AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA GIVEN THE WARM 700 MB
TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS AS 700 MB
WAA PERSISTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN KS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S IN CENTRAL KS TO NEAR 100 IN SOUTHERN KS. DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN CENTRAL KS AND
VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 IN SOUTHERN KS. AS SUCH, THE HEAT ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH 8 PM
TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH 700 MB WAA AIDING IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AGAIN GIVEN THE VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES, STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THESE CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH CHANCES DECREASING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ALLOWING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO EJECT AND SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY LOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
REACH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS, MAIN RISK WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIGHTNING. A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY,
THUS CAUSING THE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ067>072-082-083-
091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ
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