138
FXUS63 KICT 281930
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.
- CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY; HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES EXPECTED.
- COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
RIDGING CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FOLLOWED THE MID/UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT BAY SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT, WE'RE GOING TO
SEE A LATE DAY REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE, SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FLOW WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EACH NIGHT. DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EACH NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE OVERALL WARM COLUMN, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, WHEN A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT, A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SETUP
WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT WIDELY ANTICIPATED, THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WE REMAIN SOLIDLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST WITH LOCATIONS IN FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 100 EACH DAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO
REACH INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR MANY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT RECEIVE MUCH RELIEF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
EACH NIGHT.
THEN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
"COLD" FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER SHUNTED TO THE WEST AND THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS
THE REGION LOOK TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S. HEIGHTS THEN LOOK TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN RESPONSE. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO
FILTER IN ALONG WITH THE MORE MILD TEMPERATURES WITH PWATS AROUND 1"
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
AND LEAD TO MILD RH VALUES IN THE 30% RANGE, MEANING IT WILL FEEL
DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WHILE VFR
PREVAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY A MENTION AT KSLN
AFTER 09Z. EVEN WITH SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY, VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND EASTERLY TONIGHT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...MWM
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