038
FXUS63 KICT 090349
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1049 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY TURNING
A BIT COOLER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED STORM CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 EACH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WITH OFF-
AND-ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING AREAWIDE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BETWEEN ABOUT 5-10 PM IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN KS. RATHER WEAK FORCING ALONG WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES
SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED, SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
THUNDERSTORM-FREE. THE ONLY CAVEAT WOULD BE IF OUTFLOW FROM THE
CURRENT EASTERN NE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH,
SHARPENING THIS FRONTAL ZONE AND INCREASE CONVERGENCE, SUPPORTING
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE, ALTHOUGH MODEST EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOWER-END SEVERE HAIL WITH THE TALLEST CORES.
SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY EVENING...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOK LIKE CARBON COPIES OF EACH OTHER, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING IN VICINITY OF ANOTHER STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE THAT'LL BEGIN SITUATING ITSELF ACROSS MID-AMERICA
SUNDAY. WEAK RIPPLES IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN THESE
CHANCES. SIMILAR TO TODAY, THINKING THESE ISOLATED CHANCES WILL BE
"HIGHEST" GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY COULD
REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 56. SIMILAR TO TODAY, RATHER
WEAK FORCING AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
THUNDERSTORM-FREE. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS
GIVEN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL WITH THE
TALLEST CORES.
THURSDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...PER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS, A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
SHOULD SUPPORT THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO SHARPEN SOME AND FINALLY
BEGIN TO PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING SOUTH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REGION, MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING-NIGHT-MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED AND PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE, WHICH MAKES THE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE
FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER RIDGING
IN CONCERT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S AND 100S DURING THE DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIKELY NO COOLER THAN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. FORECAST HIGHS
MAY ACTUALLY BE A TAD CONSERVATIVE (ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135)
GIVEN THE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED LOWER SOIL MOISTURE THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TWO SAVING GRACES DURING THIS UPCOMING WARM
SPELL ARE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO THE JULY
HEAT WAVES AND STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, WHICH WILL AID IN
EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS ON SKIN. HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-106
DEGREES ARE LIKELY EACH DAY, HIGHEST GENERALLY OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, SO
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES AT SOME
POINT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. THE
DEGREE OF COOLING AND WHEN THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE TIED TO FRONTAL ZONE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE.
COOLER SCENARIOS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S
(ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND), WHILE WARMER SCENARIOS ONLY "COOL OFF"
THE REGION INTO THE 90S. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS (13-14Z)
IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
SOME LOCATIONS, THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT SWITCHES TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE SPEED COULD REACH 45-50KTS AT AROUND 2K FEET.
WINDS STAY AROUND 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT THEN WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...VJP
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