578
FXUS63 KICT 091117
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
TROUGHING FROM ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS INTO PARTS OF THE FLINT HILLS OVERNIGHT IN
AN AREA OF 700MB WARM ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 100-106 RANGE.
LOOKING AT RECORDS, THE ONLY SITE THAT WILL HAVE A CHANCE WILL
BE RUSSELL, WHICH HAS A RECORD OF 106. WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS
MIX-OUT MORE TODAY THAN THEY DID ON SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES FROM GETTING AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES. WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH IN WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TODAY, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST NE INTO NORTHWEST KS AND MAY
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A STORM OR TWO ALONG OR NORTH OF I-70
AFTER 22Z. JUST LIKE LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, COVERAGE
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY A STORM OR TWO EXPECTED IF THEY DO
DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HOT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MON
WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE. WHILE
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL EVENTUALLY
BE PUT INTO A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MON, INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH DPS WILL MIX OUT IS KEEPING US FROM
GOING WITH ONE AT THIS TIME. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR
TUE, WITH ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN SEEING HIGH AT OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. FOR BOTH MON AND TUE, SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER BETWEEN I-70 AND THE KS/NE BORDER AND MAY PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR A STORM OR TWO. WITH COVERAGE EXTREMELY MINIMAL IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP, WILL LEAVE MENTION OF STORMS OUT FOR NOW. ON
WED, THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER IMPULSE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN B.C. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL
PERTURBATIONS TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT. THIS WILL RAMP-UP SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES, BUT IT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON WED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO MON AND TUE.
BROAD WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH STORM
CHANCES IN FOR THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP AND
COOLER TEMPS WILL MAKE IT, AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO KEEP THE
FRONT AND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
HOT TEMPS FOR THU AND POSSIBLY FRI, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN NORTH OF KCNU. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A STORM
AFTER 22Z ALONG OR NORTH OF I-70, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE STRONGER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 22-28KT RANGE LIKELY BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
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