966
FXUS63 KICT 121715
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1215 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
READINGS STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHWEST KS. LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NE HAS KICKED OUT SOME
OUTFLOW THAT MAY HELP REINFORCE THE FRONT AND PUSH IT A BIT MORE
SOUTH. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO JUST NORTH OF I-70 TODAY
WHICH WILL KEEP ALL OF THE AREA IN EXTREME HEAT AGAIN, WITH
HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY. MAY EVEN SEE
LOCATIONS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-70 GET HIGHER WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING NEAR THE FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO
EXTREME MID MID LEVEL TEMPS PROVIDING ENOUGH CAPPING. STILL
LOOKING FOR AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGHING DIGS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL CA. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER IMPULSE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN MCS TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH OUTFLOW
FROM THE MCS TO THE NORTH MAKES IT. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS
THAT PUSH IT AS FAR SOUTH AS SALINA TO JUST NORTH OF
HUTCHINSON. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP IT FURTHER
NORTH AND AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE THINKING IT MAY MAKE IT
TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70. SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGHS COULD BE
A BIT COOLER THU FOR PLACES LIKE RUSSELL AND GREAT BEND WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS ANOTHER DAY WITH
EXTREME HEAT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS LATE THU
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL KS ALONG THE FRONT WITH BETTER CHANCES
THU EVENING AS A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF NM. EXTREME
HEAT WILL BE LIKELY FRI AREA WIDE AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. JUST LIKE FOR THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WILL TRY TO SINK INTO NORTHERN KS AGAIN.
GFS TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF BUT AT THIS
TIME FEEL THAT KEEPING THINGS WARM IS THE WAY TO GO.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL
IMPULSE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS NEBRASKA
SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND
FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL HOPEFULLY KNOCK DOWN HIGHS A BIT FOR SUN INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK, SO INSTEAD OF HIGHS IN THE 102-108 RANGE
THEY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LLJ PICKS UP. AN ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT
SHOWER OR STORM MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2026
-------------------
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 12
-------------------
LOCATION FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH
------------------------------------------------
WICHITA 106 114-1936
SALINA 106 117-1936
CHANUTE 103 109-1934
RUSSELL 108 105-2021
-------------------
THURSDAY AUGUST 13
-------------------
LOCATION FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH
------------------------------------------------
WICHITA 106 110-1936
SALINA 103 118-1936
CHANUTE 103 109-1936
RUSSELL 101 104-1978
-------------------
FRIDAY AUGUST 14
-------------------
LOCATION FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH
------------------------------------------------
WICHITA 103 110-1936
SALINA 101 110-1936
CHANUTE 102 110-1936
RUSSELL 100 106-1952
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM
CLIMATE...MWM
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