242
FXUS63 KICT 131117
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT LIKELY AREA WIDE TODAY WITH PARTS OF CENTRAL KS
POSSIBLY GETTING A SLIGHT BREAK FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE OUR
LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD 100S AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS ONE UPPER IMPULSE DIGGING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING
INTO CENTRAL CA. JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT A LARGE MCS IS TRACKING
ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH OUTFLOW SURGING SOUTH FROM THE STORMS.
OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING AND BY SUNRISE
WILL EXTEND FROM JUST NORTH OF KRSL DOWN TO NEAR KGCK. BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF EXTREME
HEAT AREA WIDE, WITH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER WEST-CENTRAL KS AS SOME
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF NM AND ACROSS WESTERN KS. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
KS THROUGH EASTERN NE, POSSIBLY SKIRTING OUR NORTHWEST FRINGES.
THERE WILL BE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPS ON FRI COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS, AS THERE ARE A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL KS. WILL GO WITH THE THINKING THAT
IT WILL MAKE IT SOUTH OF I-70 WITH A CHANCE A FEW LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL KS MAY STAY BELOW 100.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE LIKELY FRI NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
KS THROUGH NEBRASKA AS SOME ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL ENERGY LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY
OF EXTREME HEAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL
FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY,
KNOCKING HIGHS JUST BELOW 100 FOR ALL BUT SOUTHEAST AND FAR
SOUTHERN KS. AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTH, THERE IS A
CHANCE MUCH OF CENTRAL KS MAY SEE HIGHS STAY IN THE 80S FOR
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FOR SUN NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BEYOND THE TUE TIME FRAME,
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MED RANGE MODELS.
GFS TRIES TO DIG SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A STRONG
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE ECMWF DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET
AND CANADIAN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING.
COMPLEX OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN TRACKED ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN KS AND IS ABOUT TO
MOVE THROUGH KRSL AND KGBD. THIS WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THOSE SITES FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE, WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW, WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE LIKELY. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
AFTER 22Z ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS. FOR NOW WENT AHEAD AND WENT
WITH A PROB30 AT KRSL-KGBD, BUT THIS COULD BE EXPANDED TO KSLN
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2026
-------------------
THURSDAY AUGUST 13
-------------------
LOCATION FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH
------------------------------------------------
WICHITA 107 110-1936
SALINA 108 118-1936
CHANUTE 104 109-1936
RUSSELL 108 104-1978
-------------------
FRIDAY AUGUST 14
-------------------
LOCATION FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH
------------------------------------------------
WICHITA 104 110-1936
SALINA 102 110-1936
CHANUTE 104 110-1936
RUSSELL 98 106-1952
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...MWM
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