314
FXUS63 KICT 141130
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT LINGERING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KS
TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AS WELL AS SATURDAY EVENING, FOR CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
CURRENTLY, A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PAC NW. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE STATE. AS THE
LLJ INTERACTS WITH THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY, RAIN AND STORMS HAVE
LEAD TO BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL DRAW CONVECTION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
STORMS WILL STAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE
LOWER 100S ONCE AGAIN. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SETS UP, A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS MAY MANAGE TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS. THEN, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7 C/KM WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINING THE MAIN THREAT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. SUB-SEVERE RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLJ. WE'LL
RINSE AND REPEAT THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AREAWIDE
EXPECTED IN THE LOW 100S. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO
RAIN/STORM CHANCES REMAINING PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE US, THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED FURTHER SOUTH.
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE WILL
FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY LEADING TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK, THE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH UPPER 90S AND
LOWER 100S POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR TUE/WED. POPS INCREASE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY FOR RSL AND GBD. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH OVERALL COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
-------------------
FRIDAY AUGUST 14
-------------------
LOCATION FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH
------------------------------------------------
WICHITA 104 110-1936
SALINA 101 110-1936
CHANUTE 104 110-1936
RUSSELL 98 106-1952
-------------------
SATURDAY AUGUST 15
-------------------
LOCATION FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH
------------------------------------------------
WICHITA 104 107-1956
SALINA 102 112-1936
CHANUTE 103 110-1936
RUSSELL 100 109-1983
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD
CLIMATE...AMD
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