762
FXUS63 KICT 021924
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
224 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MOST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- LOW/SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MOST WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THOUGH.
- POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE NEXT
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS A CLAP OF THUNDER LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HUTCHINSON TO SALINA, WITHIN A ZONE OF MODEST MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MEAGER
FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY LIGHT AND/OR TRACE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT/SPOTTY, KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...SUBTLE MID-UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHING A WEAK DRYLINE CIRCULATION AMIDST SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREACH A WEAK CAP FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE THURSDAY, MAINLY WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LINCOLN TO LYONS TO KINGMAN TO ANTHONY. THERE IS SOME
CAM SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
VERY SPOTTY NATURE, KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
LATE TUESDAY-THURSDAY...PER MODEL CONSENSUS, DEEP WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO MID-AMERICA. THIS COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION, ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE BULLISH
ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE COLD FRONT'S SOUTHERN EXTENT. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
SUPPORTS A CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE
FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
WITH ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 98-103 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. A CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INCH
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO THE 105
DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR MANY LOCATIONS, SO WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE
HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BETTER MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING NWS FORECAST
OFFICES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ZERO PRECIP CHANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT CNU.
DAYTIME GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
LOCATIONS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD
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