887
FXUS63 KICT 181931
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
231 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
CURRENTLY, RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SLOWLY MARCHING EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO NEBRASKA. ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION ARE LEADING TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
TO OUR NORTHWEST, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACHING LOW.
FOR SATURDAY, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE HOT AND HUMID
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MODEST
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG) AND DECENT SHEAR OF AROUND 30
KTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING. STRONG WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY ON
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BUT ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE WIDELY AS THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SOME. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL BE SEEN
FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY AND HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY TOP OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE
TRAVERSES THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON ON SAT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...MWM
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