576
FXUS63 KICT 191748
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
REGION TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN, HOWEVER
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY AFTER TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING AFTER 3PM ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO MATERIALIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 30KTS FOR SOME ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL STORMS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK
WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
BEFORE MULTI-CELLS BEGIN TO CLUSTER. THE THREAT LOOKS TO TRANSITION
TO MORE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK FOR SUNDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE ATMOSPHERE COULD DESTABILIZE MORE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY INFLUENCE THE
REGION FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS
ACTUALLY BEING COOLER THAN AVERAGE ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COULD
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
4 PM WITH SOME STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN AND CLOSE TO THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS BRINGING A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS. LOW CEILINGS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. LOW CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO MIX
OUT ON SUNDAY WHILE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM
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