518
FXUS63 KICT 200521
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MON-THU.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SSW OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WE MAY
SEE SOME POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING THE CAP TO WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AFTER 4 PM. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE A DEEPLY MIXED PBL IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THIS DEEPLY MIXED PBL WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE DCAPE. STRONG DOWNDRAFTS ARE
LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WHILE THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL APPEARS SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE GIVEN MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES OR ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE WILL
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS CLUSTER
MAY BE AIDED BY A DEVELOPING LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL KS ALLOWING
THE STORMS TO PERSIST ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
FLINT HILLS LATE TONIGHT. AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LEADING TO LITTLE OR REDUCED
INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED LOWER. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE DAY. AN EARLIER ONSET APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY LIMIT THE THREAT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING MID-LVL WAA AS THE PV ANOMALY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WHILE A SLOWER FROPA WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD DAY
IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK-WEEK WITH COOL WEATHER EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE MOVE INTO
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH SEASONABLY MILD VALUES ANTICIPATED. FLOW
AROUND THIS RIDGE MAY HELP STEER SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND SOME MODEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STORMS TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR EMPORIA TO NEAR
HUTCHINSON AND IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH. STORMS
DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WILL
AFFECT KICT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS
TRACKED OUT OF WESTERN KS AND ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH KRSL-KGBD
AND WILL IMPACT KSLN IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE,
ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FILTER SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR LEVELS
AT KRSL-KGBD-KSLN AFTER 10Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE LOWER CIGS
COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO KHUT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL
LIFT BACK TO VFR LEVELS BY 17-18Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL
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