148
FXUS63 KICT 201125
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLE LOW END SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY WITH STORMS
REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS IN PLACES FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE MARGINAL SEVERE
STORM TO MATERIALIZE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
LOOKS TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING A POSSIBLE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DIVING
SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FAVORABLE SIGNAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING INTO KANSAS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LOW CLOUDS IN IFR CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THEN LOWER BACK INTO
IFR CATEGORY AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. STORMS COULD REDEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL THEN REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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