533
FXUS63 KICT 212005
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TO
DEVELOP MAINLY IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL KS WHERE WEAK CAA IS EXPECTED
TO BE. CHANCES ARE LOW (AROUND 15%) WITH THESE CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST
AROUND 80 ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS WE MOVE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO KANSAS. SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
INSTABILITY VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT FROM THE ROCKIES AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
AS ABOVE NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO LIFT OUT IN CENTRAL KS WITH
EXPECTATION THAT CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CNU LIFTING TO VFR
LIKELY AROUND 21Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. AFTER 09Z, CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP BACK TO MVFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WITH CENTRAL KS LIFTING OUT EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
MENTION WAS LEFT OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...GC
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