460
FXUS63 KICT 220346
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1046 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TO
DEVELOP MAINLY IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL KS WHERE WEAK CAA IS EXPECTED
TO BE. CHANCES ARE LOW (AROUND 15%) WITH THESE CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST
AROUND 80 ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS WE MOVE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO KANSAS. SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
INSTABILITY VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT FROM THE ROCKIES AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
AS ABOVE NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING.
STILL LOOKING FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN A FEW HOURS
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135 HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY WITH A FEW SITES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LIFR LEVELS. THIS WILL BE THE PRODUCT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL STICK AROUND THE LONGEST
ALONG OUR WESTERN FLANK, CLEARING OUT THE LATEST AT KRSL-KGBD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL
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