798
FXUS63 KICT 230356
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1056 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MID NEXT
WEEK, WARMEST FROM ABOUT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- OFF-AND-ON RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM, STAY TUNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
LATE TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...A PLUME OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN A ZONE OF MODEST 800-600MB WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SPRINKLES AND/OR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LYONS TO SALINA LINE. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY MORNING...AN EJECTING UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR OFF-AND-ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AS IT GRADUALLY EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THINKING CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, WITH CHANCES EXPANDING
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND MODEST-AT-BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT SEVERE
WEATHER, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRIDAY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASE A BIT.
ADDITIONALLY, ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY.
EARLY--MID NEXT WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK, AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES MID-AMERICA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STOUT FORCING AMIDST INCREASING BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS PERIOD (NAMELY UPPER
TROUGH TIMING, MAGNITUDE, PLACEMENT), STAY TUNED.
TEMPERATURES:
PER MODEL CONSENSUS, ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MID NEXT WEEK, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES, LIKELY WARMEST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME SOMETIME MID-
LATE NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF A STOUT UPPER TROUGH, BUT ENSEMBLE DATA
ONLY SUPPORTS A MODEST COOL DOWN AT BEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AVIATION CONCERN WILL REMAIN LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STILL LOOKING FOR LOW CLOUDS TO EITHER MOVE-IN FROM THE EAST OR
DEVELOP ALONG OUR EASTERN FLANK IN SEVERAL HOURS. LOOKING FOR A
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR LEVELS WITH KSLN-KRSL-KGBD-KHUT HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE AT IFR LEVELS. WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE 16Z-17Z TIME FRAME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
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