106
FXUS63 KICT 230740
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY-FRIDAY, SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THIS MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 700MB LAYER WILL SPARK OFF SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS OVER NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS LIFT COULD
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH FOR SOME HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES INDUCING A PLUME
OF RICHER DEEP MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO/TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY MAINLY AFFECTING CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOW THIS PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A FINAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS ON SATURDAY, BUT SHOW
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE SATURDAY
PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SPARK OFF A FEW STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS WITH THIS POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE KEY THING TO WATCH.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S SYSTEM MOVING EAST
OF KANSAS. LONGER RANGE MODELS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EJECTING INTO KANSAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
PERIOD HAS POTENTIAL FOR INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR
THIS PERIOD SINCE IT'S STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AVIATION CONCERN WILL REMAIN LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STILL LOOKING FOR LOW CLOUDS TO EITHER MOVE-IN FROM THE EAST OR
DEVELOP ALONG OUR EASTERN FLANK IN SEVERAL HOURS. LOOKING FOR A
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR LEVELS WITH KSLN-KRSL-KGBD-KHUT HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE AT IFR LEVELS. WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE 16Z-17Z TIME FRAME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
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