736
FXUS63 KICT 231710
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY-FRIDAY, SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THIS MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 700MB LAYER WILL SPARK OFF SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS OVER NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS LIFT COULD
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH FOR SOME HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES INDUCING A PLUME
OF RICHER DEEP MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO/TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY MAINLY AFFECTING CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOW THIS PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A FINAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS ON SATURDAY, BUT SHOW
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE SATURDAY
PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SPARK OFF A FEW STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS WITH THIS POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE KEY THING TO WATCH.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S SYSTEM MOVING EAST
OF KANSAS. LONGER RANGE MODELS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EJECTING INTO KANSAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
PERIOD HAS POTENTIAL FOR INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR
THIS PERIOD SINCE IT'S STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRETTY MUCH MIXED OUT, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
CENTRAL KS IS FORECAST TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT COULD IMPACT GBD AND RSL AROUND 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW. THINK SLN AND HUT MAY
BE ON THE EAST GRADIENT OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN SO HAVE KEPT
THEM DRY. FURTHER EAST THE ONLY IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...TOP
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