072
FXUS63 KICT 231909
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
209 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- DRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN TX THROUGH UPPER MO VALLEY. A STOUT MIDLEVEL LOW IS
POSITIONED OFF OF THE BAJA WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK WAA FROM 850-700 MB IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SLIDE INTO PORTIONS
OF BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. OTHERWISE, THE STRETCH OF
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
70S/NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSITIONING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST, EXPANDING THE WAA AXIS EASTWARD AND
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE I-135 CORRIDOR. LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW FOR 300-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO DEVELOP.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND EVEN INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US AND EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY, LAPSE RATES PROFILES WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND
SATURDAY, A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS COMES ASHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST US. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRETTY MUCH MIXED OUT, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
CENTRAL KS IS FORECAST TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT COULD IMPACT GBD AND RSL AROUND 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW. THINK SLN AND HUT MAY
BE ON THE EAST GRADIENT OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN SO HAVE KEPT
THEM DRY. FURTHER EAST THE ONLY IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...TOP
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