153
FXUS63 KICT 240346
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1046 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- DRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN TX THROUGH UPPER MO VALLEY. A STOUT MIDLEVEL LOW IS
POSITIONED OFF OF THE BAJA WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK WAA FROM 850-700 MB IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SLIDE INTO PORTIONS
OF BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. OTHERWISE, THE STRETCH OF
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
70S/NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSITIONING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST, EXPANDING THE WAA AXIS EASTWARD AND
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE I-135 CORRIDOR. LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW FOR 300-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO DEVELOP.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND EVEN INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US AND EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY, LAPSE RATES PROFILES WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND
SATURDAY, A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS COMES ASHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST US. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY
MORNING.
CURRENTLY, A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF A KSLN-KPTT LINE; HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS STILL ANTICIPATED
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO
MARGINAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL,
LOW CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS. IT SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR CIGS, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 COULD SEE OFF-
AND-ON SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LASTLY, SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE REMAINING BETWEEN 5
AND 15 KNOTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC
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