743
FXUS63 KICT 240735
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
235 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ON/OFF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TODAY-FRIDAY, SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
- LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITIES
FOR A NOTICEABLY STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE BOTH
POTENTIAL THREATS FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
CURRENT EARLY MORNING POLAR SATELLITE GENERATED ALPW LAYER IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW EMBEDDED WAVES TRAVELING NORTHWARD WITH-IN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 IN CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY WITH-IN
THE RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE RICHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ON/OFF PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS
CONTAINING HIGHER RAINFALL RATES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HREF SHOWS
AN UPTICK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCURRING FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ANTHONY TO KINGMAN, GREAT BEND LINE WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD TRY AND MATERIALIZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOITERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THAT LINE WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZED AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY. THE LAST REMAINING UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS EJECT FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN
A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE SHOWING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING SKIES AND MODEST SURFACE
HEATING/INCREASED INSTABILITY LEVELS OCCURRING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THIS COULD BECOME AN AREA FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO INITIATE WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR CWA.
A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE HEADING INTO
THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GEFS MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE HIGHLIGHTING A HEALTHY
DEEPENING/SLOWING DOWN TREND OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER PREDICTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, IF
THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOW THE SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE DOWN THE SCENARIO COULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY
MORNING.
CURRENTLY, A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF A KSLN-KPTT LINE; HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS STILL ANTICIPATED
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO
MARGINAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL,
LOW CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS. IT SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR CIGS, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 COULD SEE OFF-
AND-ON SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LASTLY, SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE REMAINING BETWEEN 5
AND 15 KNOTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JC
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