827
FXUS63 KICT 250718
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
218 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE TX GULF COAST WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER. NOT MUCH AT THE SURFACE TO FOCUS ON WITH A BROAD AREA OF
MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS
WESTERN KS. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN VERY
MOIST 850-700MB FLOW WITH PW VALUES AROUND 175% OF NORMAL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-135. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AROUND 00Z AS UPPER
JET MAX STARTS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE UPPER IMPULSE AS SAT MORNING APPROACHES.
FOR SAT, MID/UPPER ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH A BROAD AREA OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN TX INTO
THE GULF. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED ON SAT, WE WILL
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB FLOW WITH AN UNSEASONABLY HIGH PW AIRMASS
IN PLACE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME SCT-ISO SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS INTO EASTERN
KS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SAT NIGHT AND BY EARLY
SUN MORNING, ONLY FAR SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD STILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SUN THROUGH
MONDAY.
BY 00Z TUE, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A ROBUST UPPER LOW
DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW
SLIDES EAST MON NIGHT, LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL RAMP-UP, INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUE AS STRONG 850-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE UPPER
LOW LAGGING BACK OVER NM. UPPER LOW THEN LOOKS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WED THROUGH THU. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
OFF-AND-ON SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE EXITED THE AREA, BUT NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AS OF 4Z, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS.
AFTER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD IMPACTING MUCH OF
KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SITES IMPACTED BY ANY
SHOWER OR STORM COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC
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