317
FXUS63 KICT 070803
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A PATTERN CHANGE COULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
CURRENTLY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. WHILE WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, REACHING OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. BEHIND THIS WEAK BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
REMAINING LIGHT.
WHILE ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN US TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
FOR THURSDAY WHILE HIGHS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 80S. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY,
LEADING TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE FOR FRI-SUN. BY SATURDAY, A
TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RESULTING
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE WILL THEN COME NEXT WEEK AS A
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND LIFTS
TOWARD THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND
IMPACTS REMAINS LOW, CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST TIME FRAME AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO PROVIDE A WIND SHIFT
ON WED, HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. SO NOT
EXPECTING IT THROUGH CENTRAL KS UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE AND MAY GET HUNG-UP BETWEEN KHUT AND KICT BY EARLY WED
EVENING. BEHIND THE TROUGH, LOOKING FOR WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...RBL
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