691
FXUS63 KICT 091729
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
- A RETURN TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
PER MODEL CONSENSUS, THE REMNANTS OF LANDFALLING HURRICANE ISAIAS
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PHASE WITH A MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING MAY SUPPORT A HANDFUL OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE
COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES & WIND:
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MID NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 DEGREES LOOK PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30-35 KTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, HIGHEST
GENERALLY WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE, OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A FAIRLY DRASTIC COOL DOWN IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM, AS STOUT/CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHEAST INTO MID-AMERICA. DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUPPORTS DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S-40S BY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, ONLY WENT WITH 60S-70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S-50S
FOR LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH 00Z BUT
DECREASE TO 10-15 KT THEREAFTER. MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS FROM 04-13Z BUT MAGNITUDES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 30 KT THRESHOLD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF
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