681
FXUS63 KICT 100351
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1051 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW SITS OVER THE BORDER OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. IN OUR
AREA, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FROM LEE TROUGHING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP STRENGTHENING INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH EACH DAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS INCREASED THICKNESS AND ABOVE NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY TO START ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EAST
AND APPROACHES THE ROCKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY
AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
ON FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES COMBINED WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY AS WELL AS PWATS APPROACH 2" (GREATER THAN
THE MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) ACROSS OUR AREA. DETAILS ON
TIMING, LOCATION AND IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER. FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE SEASONABLE AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 70S. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL KS
TONIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH SOME 30 KNOT GUSTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN CENTRAL KS. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING 24-HR PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MWM
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