052
FXUS63 KICT 102346
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. AT
THE SURFACE, THERE IS A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING HAS
INCREASED, STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA,
LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING
TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LEE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER
OUR AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH EACH DAY ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
INCREASED THICKNESS AND ABOVE NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH THE
WARMEST DAYS BEING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY TO START ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PROPAGATES EAST AND APPROACHES THE ROCKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
SLOWER SOLUTION WHERE IT KEEPS THE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
AS EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY AS WELL AS PWATS APPROACH 2" (GREATER THAN THE MAXIMUM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) ACROSS OUR AREA. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION AND
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SEASONABLE AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 70S. MOVING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF DEPICTS UPPER RIDGING TO BE OVER THE PLAINS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 50S, WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
30S OR POTENTIALLY COLDER... STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING, HOWEVER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AT APPROXIMATELY
1500 FT AGL WILL REMAIN AROUND 45KTS LEADING TO LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MWM
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