836
FXUS63 KICT 111147
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH TUESDAY.
- STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
- OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
CHANCES FOR OFF-AND-ON RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ENTER BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY
FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING MAY SUPPORT A HANDFUL OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY--TUESDAY EVENING, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY--
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS, POSSIBLY HOLDING ONTO PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN KS INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN CLEARING
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PHASES WITH A
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MID-AMERICA. LOOKING
AT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS THOUGH, THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN
STEADILY SLOWING DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES & WIND:
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 DEGREES PROBABLE. ADDITIONALLY, STOUT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH THROUGH
MONDAY, OWING TO DEEP AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS A BIT HIGHER THAN NBM VALUES.
AS WE HEAD INTO MID-LATE WEEK, MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A NICE COOL DOWN, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING, AS STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST
INTO MID-AMERICA IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGHING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
AIR THUS FAR THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEEPER AND FURTHER
WEST LONGWAVE TROUGH PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THE SOMEWHAT WARMER ECMWF. FOR NOW, A GOOD COMPROMISE
WAS DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 40S, ALTHOUGH THIS PERIOD COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, AS THE NBM IS ON THE WARMER END OF THE
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SPECTRUM...STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, STRONGEST MID-LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KTS ARE LIKELY AT MAINLY RSL AND
GBD. ADDITIONALLY, A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KTS WILL
SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 1500-2000 FT AGL EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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