504
FXUS63 KICT 112315
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS OVER
THE BORDER OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LEE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA, LEADING TO BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR AREA WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, KEEPING AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LEE TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS INCREASED THICKNESS AND ABOVE NORMAL
850 MB TEMPERATURES PERSIST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY TO START ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PROPAGATES EAST AND APPROACHES THE ROCKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A SLOWER SOLUTION WHERE IT KEEPS THE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES
THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
AS EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY AS WELL AS PWATS APPROACH 2" (GREATER THAN THE MAXIMUM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) ACROSS OUR AREA. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION AND
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SEASONABLE AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 70S. MOVING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, THOUGH THE GFS HAS STARTED TO TREND NOT AS COLD
AS BEFORE. THE GFS HAS TRANSITIONED TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER,
THE GFS STILL HAS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
SO THERE IS STILL A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH THIS COLD AIR
MAKES IT. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S-60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
SUBSIDING A BIT FROM PEAK SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
WINDS APPROXIMATELY 1500-2000 FT AGL WILL REMAIN IN THE 45-50
KNOT RANGE LEADING TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. SSW SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MM
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