573
FXUS63 KICT 121804
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
104 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY, GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS TODAY.
- SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING CONCERNS MAIN THREAT, RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MID WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WARMING BACK UP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...A SLOW-MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A FEW OF THE CAMS INITIATE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-70 LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
THINKING THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN NIL LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RATHER
STOUT CAPPING, SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...THINKING THIS PERIOD HAS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
AS THE SLOW-MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
INTERACTS WITH AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, AMIDST 40-
50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. LAPSE RATES AREN'T AMAZING, SO
LIKELY NOT LOOKING AT GIANT HAIL, BUT POSSIBLY UP TO PING PONG OR
GOLFBALL SIZE IF A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF, ESPECIALLY
BEFORE 8-9 PM. THEREAFTER, THE SURGING COLD FRONT AND MERGING COLD
POOLS SHOULD TRANSITION THE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO
MAINLY 50-65 MPH WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AS THE EVENING AND NIGHT PROGRESS, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY GIVEN
THE UNSEASONABLY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATERS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS DUE TO THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE OFF-AND-ON SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST, AND THE DEEP COLD FRONTAL
ZONE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY RICH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND STRONG FORCING WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. LIMITED
BUOYANCY SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
FORCING, STRONG FLOW ALOFT, AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES & WIND:
TODAY-TUESDAY...THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE NEXT 7-10, WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
MAY FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS BOTH DAYS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-
35 MPH LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HAD TO UNDERCUT NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES, DUE
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT, AND INCREASING
COLD ADVECTION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S ARE
LIKELY, WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A DEEPENING CENTRAL TO EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH INTO MID-
AMERICA, SUPPORTING THE COOLEST AIR THUS FAR THIS FALL SEASON. WENT
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO WARM. ADDITIONALLY, STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS
FRIDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S
UNDERNEATH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL KS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A QUICK RETURN TO
SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
WEEK, AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY. MEANWHILE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
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