007
FXUS63 KICT 121945
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND FLOODING.
- A MORE IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE HAVING THE HIGHEST FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CA WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE TX GULF
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IA DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR NW KS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
SAGS SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BE IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL THETA-
E ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING.
BY TUE AFTERNOON, COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH GENERALLY
BETWEEN I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 WITH A SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHEAST CO
INTO SOUTHWEST KS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHERS WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING IN THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NOT ONLY WOULD THIS HAVE AN
IMPACT ON DAYTIME CONVECTION, BUT ALSO WITH TEMPS. SO THERE'S A
CHANCE HIGHS ON TUE COULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. STILL LOOKING FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TUE AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED, WHICH LOOKS TO BE OVER WEST/CENTRAL KS,
CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE POINT. AFTER SUNSET, STORMS WILL THEN
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS-UP. STRONG UPPER JET
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHERN NM THROUGH NW KS AND
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS JET MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. WITH STRONG
UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SOME HAIL, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH STORMS CAN DEVELOP.
WITH PW VALUES OVER 200% OF NORMAL STARTING TUE EVENING, HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COLD FRONT LOCATION BY WED
AFTERNOON WITH CAMS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BY 18Z WED, IT WILL STRETCH
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE CONVECTION
MAINLY ONLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST KS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED, WE ARE EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS DEEP
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EASTERN CO. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND STRONG
UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION, EXTREMELY
HIGH PW AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR FLOODING WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING, DUE
TO THEM BEING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY GET SHEARED OUT ON THU AS ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE TRACKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE-IN FRI AND SLIDE EAST FOR SAT, KEEPING THINGS DRY AND
ALLOWING FOR COMFORTABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY. MEANWHILE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
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